Public opinion polls are surveys or inquiries designed to extract information on public opinion so that it can be measured and analyzed.
No one can deny the fact that public opinions have dominated the political landscape in Kenya. So, how is opinion polling conducted in Kenya?
Public opinion polls
Opinion polls have been in use in Kenya since the 1970s. However, the opinion surveys conducted in the 1970s were never reported in the press.
Many electoral opinion polls were conducted during the 1992 and 1997 elections. However, it was not until the run-up to the 2002 election that more reliable agencies began conducting polls, and some have accurately predicted results.
How are public opinion polls conducted in Kenya?
Opinion polls are important tools used to study the voting behaviour of different groups, the voting decision-making process, the impact of campaigns, and other phenomena. Kenya is set to hold a general election on Tuesday, August 9, 2022.
In the run-up to the general election, pollsters released opinion polls on what they feel will be the voting patterns. The main pollsters have been oscillating in their predictions about who will carry the day in the presidential elections.
List of popular polling companies in Kenya
Pollsters conduct a poll to get people’s opinions and views on a given topic. Later, they generalize the results to the entire population.
The most popular polling companies in the country include:
Ipsos opinion polls
Ipsos stands for accuracy, truth and insight. It is a global leader in market research and delivers reliable information and a true understanding of society, markets and people. Ipsos polls and data are consistently featured in Kenyan media, especially in the run-up to the general election.
TIFA opinion polls
Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA) is an African-based full market research company offering market, social and sports research. The company recently released a poll on the voting patterns in the upcoming general elections. Its polls are not limited to the presidential race. TIFA has also released the poll results on the gubernatorial race in some counties.
Mizani Africa opinion polls
Mizani Africa is a modern Pan-African research firm that seeks to revolutionize the research industry by providing a more reliable source of information to guide political, economic or social decision-making.
The company recently conducted a survey to determine the most popular candidate ahead of the August polls. It has also published the survey results conducted on the gubernatorial race in different counties.
Infotrak opinion poll
Infotrak is one of the continent’s leading market and social research firms. As the election dates draw closer, Infotrak is one of the polling companies that have surveyed the current popularity ratings of Presidential candidates.
According to Infotrak, the election will be a two-horse race between Raila Odinga and William Ruto. The campaigns are ongoing, and the company is expected to conduct another poll before the elections.
How accurate are opinion polls?
Opinion polls are not necessarily accurate predictors of an election outcome. However, well-designed polls are usually accurate within the plus or minus 3 per cent point range.
The level of accuracy is referred to as the margin of error. Remember that the accuracy of polls depends on how truthful people are in their responses.
This also depends on whether the selected sample is representative of the population since the results will be generalized. A closer look at the performance of polling agencies shows that some have accurately predicted poll results. For instance, The Steadman Group accurately predicted the results of the 2005 referendum.
So are public opinion polls reliable? The reliability of opinion polls is often questioned, especially when the polls are about presidential elections. This is because there is no guarantee that the people who are polled are the same people who will vote on election day.
Opinion polls vs presidential elections
The Kenyan presidential election is a’ do or die’ contest, and there is a possibility that candidates will do everything within their power to manipulate the electoral environment, including opinion polls, to their favour.
However, opinion polls do not affect presidential elections because there are instances where the voters have proved the pollsters wrong. For instance, in the 2017 general election, the main pollsters had predicted that Raila Odinga would carry the day, but President Kenyatta emerged the winner.
You now know everything you need to know about opinion polls in Kenya. The accuracy and reliability of the poll results depend on various factors. Remember that public opinion changes, and you need to analyze a collection of different polls over time to get a more balanced picture before jumping to conclusions.
